August 2007

Monthly Archive

Torontoist’s TTC Survey

Posted by Techboy on 30 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Toronto

Thought the TTC survey was a bit skimpy? You might like this one better. I know I did!

Edit: link fixed. Now how did that get there? Sheesh…

Please, Sir, May I Have Another?

Posted by MoreCoffeePlease on 29 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Business

This ticks me off.

Two years for taping a bit of a movie for your own personal use? WTFF? Could the government bend over any farther to the industry lobbyists?

Cognitive dissonance

Posted by Dalton48 on 28 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Business, Toronto

The fundamentals in Toronto don’t point to continued accelerated growth in the housing market:

Toronto CMA unemployment went up by 0.1% in July to 7.0% — one of the highest u/e rates in the country and higher than the headline 6.0%.

Toronto’s wage growth was smack in the middle of national wage growth at 3.6% for year-to-date (as of July?). Much of that would come, I’d guess, from collective agreement wage hikes coming through.

From the Toronto Star: “Toronto’s population was pegged to grow by 170,000 from 2001 to 2011, a half-million by 2031. But the reality so far isn’t even close. Toronto grew by just 0.9 per cent – fewer than 22,000 – in the last five years.” Immigrants are settling elsewhere in the Golden Horseshoe.

Interesting story in the Guardian today about bonuses in London’s financial sector. If the growth at the high end is coming from the same source in Toronto — and it seems likely a great deal of it is — this is relevant to the local real estate and consumer markets as well”

City bonuses hit record high with £14bn payout Ashley Seager
Tuesday August 28, 2007
Guardian

City bonuses have increased by 30% to a record £14bn this year. The rise is twice as big as in 2006 and likely to exacerbate the widening gap between executive and shop-floor pay. The bonuses come against a background of record debt, rising bankruptcies and home repossessions. Analysis by the Guardian of preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that bonuses across the economy rose 24% this spring to £26.4bn, comfortably exceeding the country’s entire transport budget. More than half, £14.1bn, was earned by the 1 million people in the financial services sector. The figure for 2006 bonuses was £10.9bn.

The bonuses have fuelled unprecedented demand for luxury goods and high-end property. Bonuses are regularly cited by estate agents as a key factor in pushing up property prices in London.

The estate agent Savills says that prime London property prices have risen 30% in the past year while prices in almost all other regions stagnated. According to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, City buyers were behind a 20% surge in farmland prices last year as the high-rollers moved to buy up a chunk of the countryside, often surrounding a weekend retreat.

The waiting list for a new Rolls-Royce is now five years and there is a shortage of crew members for superyachts. Worldwide, 688 yachts measuring more than 80ft were launched and there will be 250 more this year.

The majority of the £14.1bn will have been earned by a few at the top of the City tree pulling in hundreds of thousands or even millions in spring bonuses at the end of a year which saw growth in the City account for more than half of all growth in the economy.

A recent survey of hedge funds estimated last year’s bonuses of Noam Gottesman and Pierre Lagrange, both 44 and directors of London-based GLG Partners which manages £40bn of hedge funds, at between £200m and £250m each.

Last year saw a continued boom in mergers and acquisitions, hedge fund activity and private equity buyouts, peaking with the recent £10bn buyout of Alliance Boots.

Bonuses across the economy rose sharply because profits are at a record high at British firms following several years of strong growth in the world economy. Figures from the ONS on Friday showed profits growth of 16% in the second quarter of the year, the biggest rise for nearly 13 years, while wage growth of just 3.6% was the slowest in more than five years.

In spite of a big increase in welfare payments to those at the bottom end of the income scale over the past decade, inequality in Britain has started to widen.Sir Ronald Cohen, one of Britain’s richest men and a founder of private equity group Apax warned recently that the gap between rich and poor could lead to riots. But analysts say the record bonuses may represent the peak for some time to come. Some have estimated that the recent turmoil in financial markets, which led to some big losses for hedge funds and a drying up of private equity buyouts, could mean bonuses paid early in 2008 will fall by 20%.

The whole beast

Posted by gigantichound on 27 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Food and Wine, Toronto

I went to the brand-new Cherry St. T&T’s today. It does seem like it should have a place in our grocery routine, though I’m still working out what it would be. TMQ and I cook from a set of ideas that are mostly English and Italian, while T&T as far as I can tell is assuming a Cantonese kitchen.

My point of comparison is the Leslieville Loblaws, as our sort of comprehensive regional grocery store:

- Their seafood counter is far better than Loblaws, though the dead catfish floating in the tank didn’t inspire confidence (in fairness, I’ve seen the same kind of thing in the lobster tank in Loblaws). It’s about as good as the one at the Ancaster Fortino’s, where watching the seething eel tank is a Christmas treat.

- Their butcher counter is quite a lot better. Loblaws never seems to have any braising cuts, let alone the one I actually want in any given case. The last time I braised a cut of beef, I had to go all the way to these people to buy it. I’m happy to support an old-fashioned butcher, but it’s miles out of the way.

Anyway, T&T has:

- fresh goose. Loblaws never has goose, though I’m sure you could order it, and they certainly never have fresh duck.
- whole chickens graded by age, heads still attached. Is the idea that the younger ones are for roasting, and the older for stewing? I assume so.

I do see the thrifty logic of including the head to add to broth, but the one time I made broth with a chicken head, it kept floating to the surface and eyeing me impassively, which was a bit creepy. That probably doesn’t reflect on anything except my own lack of honesty as a carnivore, but there you are. The broth was fine.
- fresh duck hearts and tongues (we have an Italian recipe that calls for duck hearts somewhere; I’d have to look for it. At the time, I didn’t think we could source them.)

I guess where this is going is pointing out the odd paradox that T&T is the better option for Western-style meat preparation that goes beyond a few familiar North American ideas, because of their willingness to butcher and offer the whole animal in any given case.

Housing prices vs. rent

Posted by Dalton48 on 26 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Business, Toronto

I recently had a conversation with an acquaintance who had bought a house to renovate and resell in the Bloor and Ossington area. She mentioned that she was amazed by the price rise in the area, and noted that if she wasn’t able to sell the house, she wouldn’t be able to rent it out for as much as the mortgage would cost her. I made a preliminary attempt to look at the cost of renting vs. buying in Toronto by looking through some MLS listings. The first house, a very large 3 bedroom, is for sale or rent, which makes the comparison easy:

147 Delaware

For sale: $749,000
For rent: $2,400/month

Mortgage payment on sale price, assuming 25% downpayment, 25-year mortgage at today’s prime rate of 6.25%: $3,678/month

Price to rent value: 312 x rent

The second listings are in a townhouse complex near Queen and Bathurst.

TH6-68 Carr St.
For sale: $324,900

TH12 – 68 Carr St.
For rent: $1690/month

Mortgage payment on sale price, with 25% downpayment: $1595/month (+276.98 monthly condo fees)

With 10% downpayment: $1914.50/month (+276.98 monthly condo fees)

Price to rent value: 192 x

Irvine Housing Blog goes through some metrics for assessing a house’s real value, one of which is price to rent. He assumes that closing costs etc. are offset by tax deductions in the U.S., which of course doesn’t work here, so one would think the multiple should be lower in Canada. He pitches the price/rent multiple at 180 to 150 times rent for those buying as a principle residence, and 120-150 for investors. A Scotiabank report shows that growth in house prices is roughly doubling rent increases (and I don’t believe the housing price includes property taxes, which would increase the gap).

There are also other metrics, of course, such as price to household income. Those multiples have grown in Canada as well as in the U.S. in recent years.

Plankton

The Scotia report also notes that growth in housing demand, like population growth, will slow over the next decade, and what growth there is will likely come most at the older end of the age spectrum, with “late-stage ‘move-up’ buyers and ‘downsizers’” potentially dominating the market. Which leads to the possibility of bond guru Bill Gross’ 1980 “plankton theory” taking hold of the more overheated parts of the urban Canadian real estate market:

We’re all familiar with the rapid escalation of home prices over the last 10 years. For most Americans, their homes have been the best and in many cases the only investment that they have made in their entire lives. Some have gone so far as to invest in several homes and have endured ‘negative carry’ on the cash flow in anticipation of leveraged capital gains a few years down the road. But where does it stop? Can housing continue to increase at twice the Consumer Price Index for the next 10 years?

One way to measure might be via the Plankton Theory. In the case of real estate, the plankton would be the first-time buyer (perhaps a young married couple) with a desire to own their own home but with very little capital to carry it off. When the time comes that they can’t pull it off – either through an inability to come up with a down payment, or to service the monthly mortgage – then the ‘plankton’ would disappear and the rapid escalation in housing prices would ease as well. For, unless the current homeowner has someone to sell his house to, he’ll be unable to afford the house with the view or that extra bedroom, and the process would continue into the echelons of Beverly Hills and Shaker Heights. In the end, the entire market would wither on the investment vine and home prices would stop increasing at the same rapid rate. So to gauge the health of the housing market, look first at the plankton. Without their presence and financial vitality, the market’s not going to repeat the experience of the past 10 years.”

Testy of the Danforth

Posted by gigantichound on 22 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Toronto

We missed Taste of the Danforth, except for the first night, when we got to enjoy the all-night whooping afterparty in Withrow Park. (1) Needed. 2) More. 3) Cops.) We went camping after that, not at all coincidentally.

But Val Dodge went, and wrote a satisfying rant for Torontoist:

So the question remains, why do people come to the Taste of the Danforth? It’s absolutely the worst way to experience the neighbourhood because much of what is imported for the event is so generic that it could be called the Taste Of Some Random Place Where We Happen To Be Holding The Corporate Branding Festival This Week. The restaurants are too crowded for all but a lucky few to get tables, the stores are too packed to enjoy shopping, and it’s impossible to walk anywhere along the street without merely flowing with the crowd. It can’t be for the live shows, which you can get any Friday or Saturday night at more than a dozen venues along the strip, running the gamut from bouzouki and blues to flamenco and belly dancing, with a dash of comedy for your enjoyment. It can’t be for the bargains, which are harder to find this weekend than any other. And it can’t be for the atmosphere, which is best described as, “walking down the street with 100,000 of your most disappointed friends.”

The comments are worth a look: #13 claims the local restaurants lose money on the thing.

Cheap, secure parking in central London

Posted by Dalton48 on 22 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Business, Current Events

From the Daily Mail:

A hedge fund tycoon who ran up thousands of pounds of motoring fines abandoned his £80,000 supercar in a pound for three months – because he was too busy to collect it.

When they towed away his Maserati Cambiocorsa from a square in Knightsbridge in May, they were certain he would come forward to pay his fines and collect his car from the pound.

But he ignored all attempts by [Transport for London] to contact him and let the fines increase at the rate of £25 a day until the Evening Standard newspaper tracked him down and warned him the car was about to be auctioned.

According to the hedge fund manager, Bernard Des Pallieres:

“Some of my colleagues have teased me about the car. I can understand how people might find this quite strange but it was always my intention to pick it up. I only ever use the car in the summer and this summer I have hardly been in London.

“In my defence, I would say that parking in the TfL car pound is not that expensive relative to the cost of parking in central London.”

Why was he so busy? He was setting up the £170 million SQPR fund, which specializes “in complex investments in the debt markets.” Aren’t those the kind of investments that are now being unwound as the market for opaque investments dries up?

Good thing he’s now recovered the car — he may need it.

(H/t to Infectious Greed)

Wines

Posted by lawgeek on 20 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Food and Wine

Our first attempts at foodie-oenophileness in Ottawa were not auspicious. A kinda boring Italian wine with a middling pizza, a non-VQA Ontario Merlot that I accidentally bought with a downright bad pizza, and then, worst of all, a highly-rated Austrialian Bordeaux Blend (Parker 89 etc.) that we travelled all over to Ottawa to find and buy (almost) the last *two* bottles of, which turned out to taste exactly like the Western Australia white we had with Christmas dinner last year that none of us liked. (We cooked that with “fresh” Pacific sole purchased late Sunday afternoon at a semi-local Loblaws that had clearly been sitting there since the fish delivery on maybe Thursday morning.) We returned the second bottle of the Aussie white, but we couldn’t do anything with the fish except feed it to the racoons (not deliberately, but as a foreseeable consequence) and make a mental note about trusting our instincts when buying fish.

(Actually I must have made up the bit about the non-VQA Merlot going with the really bad pizza because I now remember we bought the really bad pizza after throwing out the fish, and I don’t think we made our way through two bottles of bad wine that night.)

Anyway, I am pleased to report that slowly, our wine experiences are improving. Most worthy of mention is an LCBO general list Primitivo, Lapaccio Primitivo Salento 2005 (IGT Puglia), at $12.05 (with deposit) and 13.5%. Outgoing, vivacious nose: starting with plum, dark fruits, oak and becoming warm, baked goods, raisiny, earthy, cocunut richness even inky. Medium minus acid, lots of body, enough tannin to keep it interesting. A nice crowd wine or for pizza or pasta with tomato-Italian sausage sauce, which is what we drank it with.

Also interesting if a bit odd is a white Rioja in the August 4 Vintages release, Leza Garcia Rioja 2006 at 12.5% and $14.95. Some of us probably remember those oaked “Riojas” that we used to make with the able assistance of the Wine Druid at Quality Plonk (dba Wine Not). This is actually surprisingly reminiscent one of those wines, only far more subtle and with the benefit of actual aging. Generous oaky-tropical nose: coconut, lemon-meringue, burnt sugar, tropical melon. Rather confected with a hint of plastici-ness. Barely dry, medium body, not much acid. Sort of thing you might drink with a Paella, I think. Also goes well with Balsamic vinegar (!!). J., who doesn’t much like oaky whites, calls it a classier Little Penguin (referring to the oak-chipped Aussie chard, not to the birds).

Random additional notes. As of this release Tio Pepe is back at Vintages, much to J.’s delight. There is also an excellent Lustau dry Amontillado available here and there, about $17-18 for a normal 750mL or so which is pretty good for what you get. We also bought an Oloroso from the same producer, $14.95 for 375mL. We are saving that for a special occasion.

Stop the presses

Posted by Dalton48 on 20 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Humour, Tech

– and hold a spot on page one. Microsoft product leads to crash:

Skype: Outage caused by Microsoft update
MATT MOORE
Associated Press
August 20, 2007

FRANKFURT — A two-day outage that left millions of Skype users unable to use the popular Internet phone service was caused by an abnormally high number of restarts after people had downloaded a Windows security update, the company said Monday.

It’s a small world, small island edition

Posted by Dalton48 on 19 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: Business

Watch the British housing market, says Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight in the Guardian:

“The overall impression we get from the very latest data and survey evidence is that the housing market has peaked and is gradually and erratically coming off the boil.”

Mr Archer added that prices were unlikely to slow sharply, but he cautioned: “There is a danger that tighter credit and sustained financial market turmoil will hurt the mortgage and housing markets in the UK.

“This increases the risk that the UK housing market could see a sharp slowdown, and subprime mortgage problems could become more apparent.”

Another interesting tidbit from the Financial Times:

Defaults on UK subprime mortgages have been far lower than in the US but the level is rising. Last week the Council of Mortgage Lenders said that home repossessions had jumped 30 per cent year-on-year.

The Council estimates that subprime mortgages make up 8% of the UK mortgage market, vs. 20% in the US. However:

U.K. consumers are the most indebted in the Group of Seven nations, according to data from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research in London. The ratio of household debt to personal income is 1.62, compared with 1.42 in the U.S., 1.36 in Japan and 1.09 percent in Germany.

Housing price inflation in Britain continues, with annual growth in house prices ranging from 7.6% in Wales to 55.9% in Northern Ireland. Annualized CPI was 1.9% in July, according to the Economist.

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