“For the third quarter as a whole, international trade is going to subtract meaningfully from the gross domestic product, likely to the tune of a couple percentage points,” said Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist for TD Securities.
Hang on a sec… a couple of percentage points? Aren’t there only a couple of percentage points to play with?
4th 3rd quarter forecasts (quarter-over-quarter annual percentage change):
Update: OK, so 2 percentage points off Q3 would be a little less dire than 2 percentage points off Q4 — but still a very weak quarter, and with the C$ even higher so far in Q4, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to expect the trade surplus to do anything but narrow further.