Hear that hissing sound?

That’s the “loud signal of how the Canadian dollar is affecting exports,”:

“For the third quarter as a whole, international trade is going to subtract meaningfully from the gross domestic product, likely to the tune of a couple percentage points,” said Jacqui Douglas, economics strategist for TD Securities.

Hang on a sec… a couple of percentage points? Aren’t there only a couple of percentage points to play with?

4th  3rd quarter forecasts (quarter-over-quarter annual percentage change): 

Scotia Economics: 2.0% 2.4%

BMO Economics: 1.8% 2.4%

RBC: 2.5% 3.0%

TD: 3.0% 2.5%

CIBC: 2.0% 2.4%

Update: OK, so 2 percentage points off Q3 would be a little less dire than 2 percentage points off Q4 — but still a very weak quarter, and with the C$ even higher so far in Q4,  there doesn’t seem to be any reason to expect the trade surplus to do anything but narrow further.